Wilton Schools Also Seeing Enrollments Drop

At last week's Board of Education meeting, consultant Ellen Essman presented her enrollment projections, the highlight (or lowlight) of which was a marked anticipated decrease in the number of students attending Wilton public schools. The projected drop mirrors a statewide trend.

"There are openings in all the preschools in the area," Essman said. "So it's clear to me that the populations are declining...this is a national trend...school districts, on average, are expected between 2007 and 2020 to decline by 16 or 17 percent...on average, Wilton will be declining 13 percent between now and 2018."

Essman's presentation began with a review of Wilton birthrates, which have fallen from a 2000 high of 229 to an average of just about 150 over the last five years. When extrapolated, these numbers indicate Kindergarten enrollment will drop from a 2005 high of 335 students to a 2013 low of 250.

"I think we've peaked and I think we're in an obvious decline now," Essman added.

The struggling real estate market, which most believe has discouraged new families from moving into town, and the lower birthrate are the two largest factors contributing to the enrollment downturn. They could be partially mitigated by a slow economic recovery (which would depress migrations to private schools) and new housing starts, but such factors are difficult to forecast.

With Kindergarten numbers falling, class size in the upper grades is expected to lessen as well. In 2008, there was a record 4,297 students attending Wilton public schools in grades K-12. But in ten years' time, Essman estimates that will have diminished by 13 percent to 3,788 overall students.